بررسی تخصصی بهترین بروکرهای فارکس

By Hyunjoo Jin

SEOUL, Oct 7 (Reuters) -Samsung Electronics is expected to report a nearly nine-fold jump in third-quarter operating profit, driven by robust AI demand, though analysts have cut forecasts by nearly 8% since the end of August.

Despite moderating gains in the prices of memory chips and a strengthening South Korean won, the world's largest memory-chip maker is expected to post operating profit of 106.1 trillion won ($79.1 billion) for the July-September quarter.

The LSEG SmartEstimate, based on forecasts from 21 analysts, and weighted toward those with stronger track records has been slashed by 7.7% since the end of August.

It will be up from 12.17 trillion won a year earlier for Samsung's 005930.KS fourth consecutive quarter of record operating profit, underscoring a prolonged memory shortage as demand for AI infrastructure outstrips supply growth.

Chipmakers expect the shortage, which began more than a year ago, to persist into next year and perhaps through 2028.

However, the pace of price increases slowed in the third quarter, fanning concerns that chip margins may have peaked and prompting questions about the durability of the AI spending boom.

Samsung will provide preliminary Q3 results on Thursday before detailed data is released in late October.

The moderation in memory prices is being closely watched by investors after a more than one-year-long rally fuelled by AI-driven demand.

That rally propelled the world's largest memory producers Samsung, SK Hynix 000660.KS and Micron MU.O, to record profits and margins.

RISING COST BURDEN

Higher chip prices have pushed up the cost of smartphones and consumer electronics, weighing on demand.

At the same time, long-term supply deals between chipmakers and customers have limited price gains in exchange for guaranteed supply.

TrendForce expects conventional DRAM contract prices to rise 10% to 15% in the fourth quarter from the preceding quarter, slowing from a second-quarter surge of roughly 60%.

"Although the market remains in a tight supply position, the pace of price growth is expected to decelerate," said Avril Wu, its senior vice president for research.

Suppliers are wary of further steep price increases that could hurt demand across a broad range of consumer electronics, Wu added.

"In addition, long-term agreements represent an increasingly higher proportion of suppliers' total output. With ceiling-price mechanisms built in, the rate of price increases has slowed down," Wu said.

In July Samsung said it aimed to secure long-term contracts covering about two-thirds of its memory output, joining rivals seeking to reduce exposure to the industry's boom-and-bust cycles.

US rival Micron said the chip market could be tighter in 2027 and 2028 than this year, although it expects its gross margin to slip to 86.3% in the current quarter, from 87%, partly due to employee compensation costs.

Samsung's memory-chip operating profitmargin is expected to reach 76% in the third quarter, flat with the preceding quarter, estimates by SK Securities analyst Han Dong-hee show.

It also faces growing competition from Chinese rivals, which remain concentrated in lower-end products but are benefiting from the AI-driven memory shortage.

"Our industry checks indicate that an increasing number of OEMs and ODMs are adopting Chinese DRAM and NAND," Kinngai Chan, senior research analyst at Summit Insights Group, said in a report.

Currency swings are another headwind. The won KRW= strengthened 14.3% against the dollar in the third quarter, rebounding sharply from 17-year lows for its biggest quarterly gain since early 1998.

That reduces the value of overseas earnings when repatriated.

Samsung shares have fallen about 25% from a June record but remain more than double their level at the start of the year.

The company is expected to boost sales of high-bandwidth memory (HBM) chips, a critical component for AI data centres, as it narrows the gap with market leader SK Hynix.

Samsung had lagged in HBM supplies after delays in qualifying products for Nvidia NVDA.O, but has gained ground this year by expanding shipments of its latest HBM4 chips.

Its HBM market share is expected to rise to 34% this year from 20% last year, J.P. Morgan estimates, while SK Hynix's share is forecast to fall to 46% from 60%.

($1=1,341.7500 won)

Reporting by Hyunjoo Jin; Additional reporting by Jihoon Lee; Editing by Miyoung Kim and Clarence Fernandez

By Makiko Yamazaki

TOKYO, Oct 7 (Reuters) -Business confidence atbig Japanese manufacturers rose in October to its highest level in nearly five years, helpedby robust chip demand, butsentiment among non-manufacturers deteriorated sharply amid rising costs, a Reuters monthly poll showed.

The Reuters Tankan sentiment index for manufacturers edged up to plus-22 from plus-21 in September, a level not seen since December 2021.

Confidence in the precision machinery sector, which includes some chip-related equipment makers, jumped nine points to plus-38.

"The semiconductor industry remains buoyant and order volumes have been running at 1.5 times normal levels for the past four months," a manager at a precision machinery company wrote.

Another respondent at a machinery firm cited strong orders and shipments for products serving the semiconductor market.

Sentiment in the metal products sector also rose nine points, to plus-35, while the steel and nonferrous metals sector surged to plus-25 from minus-13.

The poll, a leading indicator of the Bank of Japan's quarterly Tankan survey, was conducted from September 18 to October 2 and received responses from 215 out of 508 firms.

The indexes are calculated by subtracting the percentage of pessimistic responses from optimistic ones, with positive figures indicating net optimism.

Thenon-manufacturers' sentiment fell to plus-23 from plus-29, its lowest level since November 2024.

Food producers recorded the sharpest deterioration, dropping 15 points to minus-40 as higher raw-material costs and weak consumer spending squeezed profits.

Sentiment in theinformation and communications sector tumbled to plus-8 from plus-21. Retailers fell to plus-8 from plus-18, while real estate and construction declined to plus-28 from plus-37.

Respondents pointed to higher interest rates, elevated construction costs and weaker household spending. "Property investment has become difficult because of rising interest rates and construction costs," a real-estate company manager wrote.

Wholesalers bucked the broader trend, rising to plus-30 from plus-24, helped by stronger demand for construction materials linked to disaster-recovery projects.

Looking three months ahead, manufacturers expect sentiment to improve modestly to plus-23, while non-manufacturers see their index easing further to plus-21.

Several manufacturers also warned that strong AI-related demand may eventually moderate, while service-sector firms expressed concern that inflation was weighing on household purchasing power.

Reporting by Makiko Yamazaki; Editing by Edwina Gibbs

PARIS, Oct 6 -US credit card spending on luxury brands fell for a third consecutive month in September, retail lender Citi said on Tuesday, signalling further weakness in the industry's biggest market as the US heads into the November 3 midterm elections.

Buffeted by prolonged weakness in China and the economic fallout of the Iran war, luxury brands have pinned hopes on resilient demand from wealthy US shoppers, including a growing cohort of AI millionaires, to offset softer sales elsewhere and help lift the sector out of a prolonged downturn.

While continued wealth growth among affluent consumers supported the top-end of the market in September, overall USluxury credit card purchases fell 6% from a year earlier, after declining 4% in both July and August, Citi analysts said in a research note.

The luxury brands most exposed to the US include Tapestry TPR.N, owner of Coach and Kate Spade; French conglomerate LVMH LVMH.PA, known for brands like Louis Vuitton and Tiffany; and Italy's Ferragamo SFER.MI, they said.

Still"brands with greater exposure to higher-end consumers should remain relatively resilient, supported by equity-market wealth effects," Citi said.

Spending on leather goods and ready-to-wear items improved sequentially in September, the note added, while watches and luxury jewellery deteriorated even further.

Most soft luxury brands which sell apparel, shoes and leather goodshave raised their pricesby low single digits in percentage terms so far this year, slightly below the low to mid-single-digit price increases from watch and jewellery makers, the note said.

A COOLING ECONOMY

The Citi data, based on millions of credit card transactions, follows surveys from the Conference Board and the University of Michigan that showed growing unease about the US economy ahead of the midterm elections, when voters will decide control of Congress.

The run-up to elections is often marked by heightened caution among consumers and businesses as political uncertainty weighs on spending decisions. Economists say rising US Treasury yields and mortgage rates could further cool economic activity.

Morgan Stanley analysts said in September that the downturn in US luxury spending leaves brands with little scope to deliver the long-awaited return to growth after two consecutive years of contraction.

The brokerage expects luxury groups to flag weaker US demand during the upcoming earnings season, which begins on October 12 when LVMH, widely seen as a bellwether for the industry, reports third-quarter sales.

Gucci owner Kering PRTP.PA, which releases earnings on October 22, told analysts last week to expect a slowdown in the US market, according to Italian brokerage Equita.

Reporting by Alessandro Parodi in Paris and Danielle Kaye in New York; Editing by Lisa Jucca, Mark Potter and Cynthia Osterman

TOKYO, Oct 7 (Reuters) -Japan's government is considering compiling an extra budget focused on spending for disaster relief, the Yomiuri newspaper said on Wednesday.

The size of the extra budget, the second this fiscal year, is likely to be small and not aimed at stimulating the economy, the paper said, citing a few unidentified sources.

The government will begin work in November to compile the extra budget, aiming to pass it through the ordinary parliament session that begins early next year, the paper added.

The prime minister's office was not immediately available to comment.

Reporting by Leika Kihara; Editing by Clarence Fernandez

NEW YORK, Oct 6 (Reuters) -A US judge on Tuesday authorized an investment fund seeking documents related to the iron ore trader Radiant World to subpoena payments records from the Federal Reserve Bank of New York and Clearing House Interbank Payments System, for use in a criminal proceeding in Switzerland.

Reporting by Jonathan Stempel in New York; Editing by Christopher Cushing

Adds details and background throughout

Oct 7 (Reuters) -Global miner BHP BHP.AX said on Wednesday it has agreed to sell the Kambalda Nickel Concentrator and a package of associated tenements and mineralisation rights in Western Australia to Johannesburg-listed Gold Fields GFIJ.J.

Here are some more details:

• BHP did not immediately respond to a Reuters request for comment on the financial terms of the deal.

• The company temporarily suspended its Western Australia Nickel assets in early 2024 following oversupply in the global nickel market.

• The downturn, driven in part by rising Indonesian supply and weaker prices, prompted Australia later that year to designate nickel a critical mineral, making the industry eligible for billions of dollars in government support.

• BHP said on Wednesday it would review the future of its remaining nickel assets by February 2027, assessing options including divestment, continued suspension, a restart or closure.

• Gold Fields will evaluate options for the long-term use of the concentrator and offer employment to people directly supporting the asset, BHP said.

• The agreements are subject to regulatory approvals and other conditions. The completion is expected during 2027.

Reporting by Roshan Thomas in Bengaluru; Editing by Anil D'Silva and Shilpi Majumdar

Oct 6 (Reuters) -Lithium miner Sigma Lithium SGML.V said on Tuesday it would resume mining and processing at its Grota do Cirilo project in Brazil after a federal appeals court upheld its environmental licences, reinforcing its target of reaching an annualized lithium oxide concentrate production rate of 330,000 tonnes by the end of 2027.

The company said the appeals court overturned an emergency order issued last month by a federal judge in Teofilo Otoni that had suspended its licences, allowing Sigma to fully resume mining and processing operations.

The legal dispute is linked to a lawsuit brought by Ngolo, an association representing local Quilombola communities. Sigma said its operations are outside a newly claimed community perimeter and that its licences were issued in accordance with applicable regulations.

Sigma said it does not need additional mining or processing capacity to meet its 2027 production target, citing available capacity at its South Pit, its existing processing plant and recycling and reprocessing circuits installed following a 2024 upgrade.

The company said its plant had previously produced more than 950 tonnes of lithium concentrate per day, exceeding 1,000 tonnes on several days after the upgrade.

Sigma, which produces lithium concentrate used in battery materials, said it plans to restart a second expansion phase in 2027 that could lift annual capacity to about 580,000 tonnes, followed by a third phase targeting 830,000 tonnes.

Reporting by Dharna Bafna in Bengaluru; Editing by Anil D'Silva

By Jacob Bogage

FAIRBANKS, Alaska, Oct 6 (Reuters) -US Vice President JD Vance gave an exclusive interview to Reuters on Monday while campaigning in Alaska, a state that has emerged as a key battleground in the November elections that will determine control of Congress.

This transcript of the interview, which took place after a rally at Fairbanks International Airport for Republican US Senator Dan Sullivan, has been edited lightly for length and clarity.

Jacob Bogage, Reuters:

Mr. Vice President, let's start here. Can you tell me about where things stand with Iran right now?

Vice President JD Vance:

Well, you know, we're at a place where the Iranians are trying to terrorize the world economy by shooting at commercial shipping. They're largely failing. They're hitting some ships, but not enough to stop the flow of oil and gas. So what that means is, their response to us destroying the nuclear program was to try to terrorize commercial shipping and exercise leverage over the United States of America.

And where we are is, as the president said, the nuclear program's been destroyed, but every time they try to squeeze the world economy, we actually squeeze them harder. And so I think what the president has said is, look, you guys fundamentally are not in a game that's going to work out for you. Every time they try to cause damage to the world economy, they end up causing much greater damage to themselves, and eventually they're going to have to decide either to make smarter decisions or to suffer the consequences.

Bogage:

You've played a pivotal role in terms of American foreign policy writ large, turning how the US engages on the world's stage from conflicts without direct American interests, like Ukraine, to conflicts with direct American interests, like Iran. Tell me a little bit about what does it take for the US to resume kinetic attacks? What do you need to hear? Or, rather, what do you need to not hear?

Vance:

That's obviously a decision the president of the United States will make. But you know, we have to start with a fundamental goal here. The goal here is to prevent the Iranians from having a nuclear weapon, and really to prevent regional nuclear proliferation. Because, as the president's reminded people, it's if the Iranians get a nuclear weapon, then other countries will get a nuclear weapon.

Bogage:

Is that a larger focus than where this conflict began?

Vance:

To finish that question, what that means is their nuclear facilities, their enrichment facilities, have been destroyed, and we're going to ensure that they can't rebuild those facilities and rebuild their nuclear capacity.

That's fundamentally the goal here, and everything else that's happening, from them terrorizing shipping to our response to that, is really a subplot of the much bigger goal of keeping them from having a nuclear weapon.

Bogage:

You talk about preventing regional proliferation. Is that a goal that has expanded from the original goal of this operation?

Vance:

No, no. I mean, I think that's one of the reasons why the president didn't want Iran to get a nuclear weapon, because he realized that if they did, then a lot of other countries would then sprint for a nuclear weapon.

So, you know, you don't want the world's largest state sponsor of terrorism to have a nuclear weapon. You also don't want to radically increase the number of nuclear weapons in the world. The president hears a lot about that.

It's interesting. It's something that came up in the conversation with (Chinese President) Xi (Jinping) that the president has said multiple times publicly. He doesn't like mass proliferation of nuclear weapons. It's one of the core parts of his foreign policy, and frankly, something that both Democrats and Republicans should have been a little more focused on over the last 40 years.

Bogage:

Who is the US negotiating with right now?

Vance:

Well, that's a good question.

You know we're negotiating with the political leadership of the country, specifically, you know, the foreign minister has led the negotiations, the president of the country, a number of people work for them. But one of the things we picked up on is it's not totally clear how their country makes decisions.

If you go back to the original agreement that we struck, it was very simple. It was not a complicated document. It basically said we're going to open up the Strait of Hormuz, the United States is going to lift our blockade, and we're going to talk about the nuclear program. That's really all it said.

And they couldn't even keep the end of the bargain where they didn't shoot at commercial shipping. And our assessment of why that is, is because, yeah, you have people in the country who want to make a deal, and we're willing to talk to them. You also have people in the country who are trying to sabotage a deal, which I think is very stupid for their country. But you know, it's ultimately their decision to make.

Bogage:

Iran has said for 47 years, and I'm not going to weigh in on whether it's believable or not, that they don't want a nuclear weapon. How do they communicate that any differently, in a way that helps the United States wind down its operation?

Vance:

Well, I guess I would say, if you don't want a nuclear weapon, then why do you need 60% enriched fuel? And if you want to show commitment to not building a nuclear weapon, don't build highly enriched fuel. That's a very basic threshold issue.

Sixty percent enriched uranium, you know, I'm hardly a nuclear scientist, but I've learned this: you don't need that for any energy production. You don't need it for anything except to have threshold weapons-grade uranium.

So I think if they want to show a commitment to not building a nuclear weapon, they would do something meaningful on their enrichment capacity. So far, we haven't seen a long-term commitment to do that.

Bogage:

There's been reporting that you are leading these talks. Are you leading these talks?

Vance:

We're certainly involved. I mean, ultimately, the president of the United States is driving things and is issuing direction. And then, you know, we're trying to get the president's mission accomplished as best we can.

You know, what the president has said is, you know, look, from the very beginning, we're willing to strike an agreement where the Iranians commit to not rebuilding their nuclear program and take real steps in order to do that, but it takes two to tango, and we're not going to trade words for actions.

In other words, the United States is not going to do things for mere promise of actions on the Iranian side. We need to trade actions for actions here, and we'll see what the Iranians do.

Bogage:

Since we spoke earlier this morning, the New York Times reported there was an Iranian operation in motion in the UK at RAF Fairford, similar to perhaps what the Ukrainians had done in getting drones deep into the country. Do you have any intelligence on that that you're in a position to share?

Vance:

I'm not going to speak to classified intelligence. Nothing has happened yet. We're very aware that the Iranians are trying to conduct strikes against American assets all over the world. You know, we also have incredibly capable guys on the military side and the intelligence side. So far, nothing has happened. We'll keep praying and working to ensure that it doesn't.

Bogage:

On munitions stocks, we hear one thing from Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth. We hear other things from commanders in the field, but I know you speak to them personally. Have they conveyed concern about munition stocks to you?

Vance:

I'd be surprised if the commanders in the field were saying something different than what Secretary Hegseth is saying, because obviously they're communicating to him and they're communicating to all of us.

I think what is undoubtedly true is that warfare has changed. I mean, you mentioned this Ukrainian attack on a Russian airfield, and you know whatever the reality is, people are using drones and asymmetric capabilities in a totally new way, and that does require a totally new kind of defensive and offensive capability.

Do I think that we're far ahead of anybody else in the world? Yeah. Do I think that we always need to be thinking about how to build more? The president, I wouldn't even say laser-focused. I would say he is obsessed with this question of how we stay ahead in terms of military-grade technology.

I think that sometimes this munitions conversation gets reinterpreted through a lens of American weakness, when in reality, what the president is just trying to say is, we need to build the weapons of the future, and we need to build enough so that we can properly defend ourselves.

Bogage:

It would be malpractice, Mr. Vice President, if I didn't ask this.

Vance:

Go ahead.

Bogage:

These good people at the rally seem like they want you to run for president. Are you going to run for president, sir?

Vance:

Man, I've been asked that question a lot. I'm inherently a procrastinator, and I really haven't thought that much about it. We're going to try to win the midterms, get Dan Sullivan elected, which I'm very confident we're going to do, and then, you know, we'll figure it out after that.

Reporting by Jacob Bogage
Editing by Rod Nickel

Updates with details from the FT report

Oct 6 (Reuters) -SpaceX SPCX.O is seeking to raise $40 billion in a financing effort led by asset manager Apollo Global Management APO.N to purchase Nvidia NVDA.O chips, the Financial Times reported on Tuesday,citing people familiar with the matter.

The Elon Musk-led company is seeking to raise about $10 billion in bank loans and $30 billion in investment-grade debt to fund its chip order, the report said.

Apollo is expected to lead the deal and help sell the debt to a broad range of investors, with bond fund Pimco among lenders in talks to finance the transaction, FT reported.

The transaction is expected to close in 2027, according to the report.

SpaceX, Apollo, Nvidia, and Pimco did not immediately respond to Reuters requests for comment.

Reporting by Rishabh Jaiswal in Bengaluru; Editing by Diti Pujara